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Estimating uncertainties in integrated reservoir evaluation at prospect/appraisal stage
6 August 15:00 - 15:30 UTC
The joint webinar from Rock Flow Dynamics and Neptune Energy (UK)
Neptune Energy (UK)
To make sound investment decisions, stakeholders need accurate estimates of the uncertainties present in forecasts of reservoir production and reserves estimation. Traditionally, reservoir studies were not integrated and dealt with in silos. Each discipline worked on its own separately and projects often followed a linear approach: geophysics, geology, and then reservoir engineering. Deterministic approaches were generally used to do an evaluation due to timescales, but it is accepted that they have limited confidence in quantifying the ranges of uncertainty involved due to honouring of critical data and exploring the full range of uncertainty.
In this work, a method is proposed to analyse the range of structures, with several different geological and dynamic uncertainties together within a probabilistic framework.
Analysis of the results will show which geological parameters are key for the project and what sort of outcome would be required in order to achieve commercial success. In addition, the probabilistic approach allowed for an extensive review of profiles, whereby more reliable P90-P50-P10 scenarios could be established. Based on this investigation, in combination with an economical evaluation, a criterion was developed in order to understand the ‘true’ potential of an exploration or appraisal block, providing a robust methodology to support critical decisions that can be subsequently replicated in similar future studies.